Australians are eating out more. They’re visiting pubs and bars more often. They’re spending less on home liquor and more on restaurant meals. And the data to prove it is in CommBank iQ’s 2026 Table to Turnover report, drawn from transactions made by more than seven million Australians.
The occasion economy is rebounding, but the more important question is whether your venue is positioned to capture your share of it.
We’ve put together a summary of what the trends means for your restaurant. Let’s dive in.
Australians are choosing dining out over the eating in
The headline finding from the CommBank report is striking:
- Year-on-year spending on cafes, restaurants, and catering grew +6.6% to January 2026 — more than double the growth in supermarkets and grocery (+2.7%)
- Pubs and bars grew +5.1%, while at-home liquor retail actually declined -1.0%
The report notes the shift was consistent throughout December — peak season for home hosting — which suggests this is a structural change in how Australians socialise, not just a post-Christmas bump.
People aren’t just choosing convenience; they’re choosing the experience of going out. As the report puts it, the data points to “a redistribution of occasions, rather than a short-term phenomenon.”
Where you operate matters more than you might think
The CommBank data breaks spending growth down by state, and the differences are significant:
- NSW shows the strongest rotation from at-home liquor to licensed venues — an 8.8% gap between pub growth (+6.0%) and liquor retail (-2.2%). Dining also grew +6.9% against grocery’s +2.1%.
- Victoria saw a strong +5.2% in pubs and bars against -1.6% in liquor retail, with dining up +6.6%.
- Western Australia led in dining growth at +7.9%, with grocery also growing at +3.9% — suggesting WA consumers are spending more across the board.
- South Australia showed a more muted picture, with pubs growing just +0.6% and a smaller gap between dining and grocery.
If you’re in NSW or Victoria, consumers are actively trading home drinking for in-venue experiences — and that’s a direct opportunity to capture new occasions. If you’re in SA or ACT, the data suggests being more targeted about which moments you’re competing for.
Understanding your local market conditions is how you make smarter decisions about staffing, marketing spend, and promotional timing. Now Book It’s venue reporting tools can help you track your own performance against these broader market shifts, so you’re not flying blind.
Mexican and Middle Eastern cuisines growing fastest and what that tells you about menu strategy
The CommBank report goes deeper than just restaurants vs. grocery. It breaks down year-on-year spend growth across Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) formats, and the results are a useful signal for any operator thinking about menu positioning.
- Mexican led all categories at +14.1% growth
- Kebabs followed at +12.1%, while Sushi grew +7.3%
- Meanwhile, pizza declined -0.9%, and chicken grew a modest +1.1%
The report attributes Mexican’s growth to both higher visit frequency and higher spend per visit — signs of habitual, loyal behaviour. Pizza’s decline, by contrast, is driven by consumers visiting less often, which the report describes as “a loss of visit share.”
What the pattern suggests is that cuisines closely associated with eating out are winning. Cuisines that have become synonymous with delivery and staying home are losing ground.
What this means for your restaurant: If your menu or format has drifted toward a delivery-first experience, now is the time to reassert the in-venue occasion. That might mean redesigning the dining experience, adding a shareable format to the menu, or leaning into the social nature of the meal.
Check out our guide to creating a successful restaurant menu. Consumers in 2026 are choosing venues that give them a reason to leave the house — you need to be one of them.
Younger and older Australians are driving restaurant growth
One of the most actionable findings in the report is the breakdown of spending growth by age group. And it’s not where you might expect.
The two fastest-growing cohorts are:
- 18–24 year olds (“Routine socialisers”): pub and bar spending up +10%, cafes and restaurants up +8%.
- 75+ year olds (“Time-rich connectors”): the leading growth cohort across every category — pubs and bars +13%, cafes and restaurants +13%, supermarkets +8%, and even liquor retail +6%.
- Middle-aged consumers — particularly families with secondary school-aged children — are the “compressed cohort,” with modest pub growth of just +1% and sharper declines in home liquor.
This matters for how you design your offer. A one-size-fits-all approach misses the groups actually driving growth. Young adults are looking for social occasions — atmosphere, shareability, and value. Older diners are spending across formats and occasions, suggesting they’re not price-sensitive but are driven by experience, accessibility, and familiarity.
If you haven’t thought about which cohort dominates your trade area, now’s the time. Are your opening hours aligned with the groups most likely to visit? Is your booking experience accessible for older guests who may prefer calling over using an app?
Now Book It’s AI phone receptionist, Sadie, handles exactly this — answering calls 24/7 so older guests who prefer to ring can still book without you lifting a finger.
CBD venues: workers drive your revenue, not tourists
For operators based in a Sydney or Melbourne CBD, the CommBank data on spending mix is essential reading.
In both cities, workers generate around ten times the per capita spend of tourists, and five times that of local residents. Workers in the Sydney CBD visit venues roughly 58 times per year, committing 16% of their food wallet to CBD spending. Tourists, by contrast, visit just two to three times and account for only 1% of wallet share in Sydney.
Melbourne shows slightly higher tourist penetration (62% vs. Sydney’s 37%), but the economic anchor of both CBDs is weekday, employment-driven activity.
For CBD restaurants, this has clear implications:
- Your lunch service is your most reliable revenue window. In the Sydney CBD, the 12pm–2pm window accounts for 22% of total daily food trade, with the peak hitting exactly at noon.
- Your evening trade is your growth window. The 6pm–10pm period accounts for 32% of Sydney CBD daily food trade, peaking at 8pm–10pm.
- Your weekend strategy should reflect reality. Saturday evenings are significant (25% of nighttime trade), but if you’re a weekday-focused CBD venue, don’t over-invest in weekend staffing at the expense of your Monday–Friday lunch game.
The practical implication: align your rosters, your menus, and your promotional activity to these demand cycles. If you’re running a set lunch deal, make sure it’s live and bookable before noon. If you’re pushing private dining or group bookings, the 8–10pm window is where that spend is concentrated.
Now Book It’s table management tools let you structure your booking windows around exactly these peaks — no wasted covers, no understaffed services.
Locals vs. tourists when it comes to restaurant marketing
Whether you’re in the CBD or a suburban strip, understanding your customer mix — locals, workers, or tourists — changes everything about how you market your venue.
Locals visit your CBD venue around 11 times per year in Sydney and 10 times in Melbourne, with a 5% wallet share. They’re a reliable base, but they’re not your biggest spenders. Tourists are high-penetration in Melbourne (62%) but low-frequency — and they’re unlikely to return unless they’re visiting regularly.
For most venue operators, the clearest growth opportunity is deepening loyalty with your highest-frequency visitors — whether that’s local residents, nearby workers, or regulars who already love you.
This is exactly where owning your guest data pays off. Third-party booking platforms take your customer information with them. Now Book It keeps that data with your venue — so you can track visit frequency, identify your top spenders, and market directly to the guests most likely to return.
In a market where worker spend dominates, re-engaging your known regulars with a targeted campaign is a higher-ROI move than chasing new tourists.
Five things to action this week
The CommBank report is rich with insight, but insight without action is just interesting reading. Here’s how to translate the data into decisions for your venue:
Audit your local market position. Are you in a state or suburb where the rotation to venues is strong? Or are you in a more muted market where you need to work harder for each cover? Your trading data tells the story — pull it.
Review your menu for occasion alignment. Are you giving guests a genuine reason to dine in, or have you drifted toward a delivery-friendly format? The cuisines growing fastest in 2026 are those associated with the experience of eating out.
Look at your customer age mix. Are 18–24s and 75+ Australians visiting you? These are the two fastest-growing cohorts — if they’re not coming in, it’s worth asking why.
Map your trading by daypart. Lunch and evening peaks are the two highest-value windows in the CBD. In suburban venues, weekends carry a heavier load. Structure your staffing and your booking availability around when demand actually hits.
Start owning your guest data. Every cover you take through a third-party platform is a guest relationship you don’t own. Move your reservations to Now Book It and you’ll have the data to understand — and grow — your customer base over time.
Now Book It is trusted by over 11,000 hospitality venues across Australia
Book a demo to see how smarter reservations, guest data, and AI-powered tools can help your venue capture its share of the 2026 hospitality rebound.
